Ming-Chi Kuo Goes Deep on Apple AR/MR Headset Expectations

09 AUGUST 2022 - Don’t you just love a story with a backstory? TF International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is still with TF International. It seems that someone with a Taiwanese business publication put out a report that the analyst was no longer affiliated with TF International, hence all of his Twitter posts of late. That is a “false report,” according to a Twitter post from Ming-Chi Kuo.

“No hard feelings” seems to be the analyst’s sentiment. Between machine translations and reading rather than hearing though, one wonders what the heck is going on. Whatever the case - to prove that he’s still with TF International, the analyst posted a screen shot of his most recent note for the firm, published on Sunday 7 August. I then took a picture of that with my iPhone and copied the text from that picture into a Pages doc because we live in the future.

That’s the backstory. Here’s the story: Ming-Chi Kuo is super excited about the mixed reality headset he sees Apple announcing as soon as January 2023. Investors are not as excited, but he gets that. Trying to explain it to them before they see it would be like trying to explain a piano to a goldfish. Or trying to explain Norway to a dog, if you want to keep it “all Apple all the time.” The way he sees it, “Apple AR/MR headset will be the next revolutionary consumer electronics product after iPhone.” Explaining why it’s inexplicable, the analyst says:

The success of the epoch-making consumer electronics in the past (such as the iPhone, Wii, etc.) was because they provided innovative experiences that people could not imagine before these products were announced/released. Therefore it is reasonable for most investors to have doubts about Apple AR/MR’s user scenarios currently.

Well, that’s one reason. Another is the price. The TF International analyst thinks the thing will start somewhere between $2,000 and $2,500. He says Apple’s not looking to sell many at that price though - one-and-a-half-million-units or fewer is his thinking. Quoting the analyst again:

Apple's first-generation AR/MR headset focuses on proving if the market demand exists rather than on price/shipment. If the market demand exists, the selling price will gradually decrease, boosting rapid shipment growth with improved production, technology, and cost.