iPhone Expectations: A Sentiment Journey
Bloomberg: Next Round of iPhone Production to Stay Even with Current Round
27 MAY 2022 - How will the next round of iPhones do? About the same as the current crop seems to be Apple’s thinking. Bloomberg (via The Irish Examiner) has secret people said to know something saying that the Cupertino-company is asking suppliers to supply “roughly 220 million iPhones…” That’s believed to be about the same as the current round of production.
Some might hear that and think, “not bad.” As Bloomberg points out, “[the] worst inflation in decades, a war in Ukraine and supply-chain turmoil all threaten to weigh on sales in 2022.” Adding color, the report had Strategy Analytics senior director Linda Sui saying last month:
This year will be a tale of two halves… Geopolitical issues, component shortages, price inflation, exchange rate volatility, and Covid disruption will continue to weigh on the smartphone market during the first half of 2022, before the situation eases in the second half.
If any company (even Apple) came through a year like that without a drop in sales, it might be seen as impressive. Still, Bloomberg says forecasters have been expecting production of 240 million iPhones next round, not the 220 pegged by the secret so-and-sos. That, they say, would be “driven by an expected major update to the iPhone in the fall.” Or “would have been.” We shall see.
Ming-Chi Kuo Raises Questions Around iPhone 14 Demand
Throwing a spanner in my mind-grapes was TF International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. He hit Twitter with a couple of posts on Thursday. Quoting the first:
My latest channel checks suggest that Apple has not changed the shipping plan for the iPhone 14 models since the Shanghai lockdown. iPhone 14 Max is running behind, but it's still under control currently, and suppliers can work overtime to catch up with the schedule.
The second said:
I believe iPhone 14's challenges will come from the demand side instead of the supply side.
I’m sorry, what?
Let’s do the first one first. Young MC does not seem to be addressing the volume issue, but simply whether iPhone 14 will hit on schedule. Maybe Foxconn’s off and on early hiring spree has helped. Then again, a lot can happen in four-months.
As for the second Twitter post, I’m sorry, what? “I believe iPhone 14's challenges will come from the demand side instead of the supply side,” said the analyst. TechRadar’s Lance Ulanoff posted a great question in response asking, “Why? Because of economic pressures?”
Would have been better if Ming-Chi Kuo had answered. Sadly, he did not. That’s gotta be the answer, though. I mean companies that make smartphones aren’t the only ones facing geopolitical issues, price inflation, Covid disruption, and so on.
