Evercore Sees Modest Apple Beat for June-Quarter
07 JULY 2022 - Even less worried than the folks at Morgan Stanley is Evercore analyst Amit Daryanani. Apple 3.0 ran part of a note he wrote, wherein he predicted a “modest” beat by Apple for the June-quarter. That’s a beat of Wall Street expectations, not any stated by Apple. As it’s done since March of 2020, Apple declined to offer guidance for the most recent quarter thanks to #TheseTimesInWhichWeLive.
Of course, last quarter is very last quarter. The way Daryanani sees it:
The bigger focus will be Sept-qtr guide that we suspect could qualitatively be below current expectations given a challenging f/x environment and evolving macro situation.
[Whispers] He’s talking about war. And inflation.
Five factors he sees figuring in:
Weak Chinese smartphone data (-9%),
App Store deceleration to ~4% growth,
Micron and others flagging weakness in smartphone/PC demand.
Foxconn Update was a key positive data point with Foxconn reporting strong June sales (+30%) and raising its full year guidance,
F/X dynamics – we estimate f/x could be a 100bps headwind to model going forward vs. initial expectations.
Bottom line, Daryanani says he and his:
…are relatively neutral this quarter as we think Apple is contending with numerous headwinds, but these risks should be adequately understood and reflected in expectations.
Neutral for the quarter, but still positive on the stock. Evercore has an “Outperform” rating on Apple shares. The firm’s price target on the shares is $180.
Remind Me to Make a Call…
And thus begins the parade of guessing. Estimating. Eh, somewhere between guessing and estimating. Apple has set earnings for the June-quarter - the third-quarter of fiscal year 2022 - for Thursday 28 July. Numbers will go out after the close of trading - 4:30 EDT/1:30PDT. Half-an-hour later, Apple will host its call with financial analysts. That’ll be streamed live on Apple’s investor page. It’ll also be available to replay there for a couple of weeks. Apple will make the call available as a podcast soon after, though that’ll also only be available for a couple of weeks. You can also keep it right here - where lights high and low will be hit within hours of all of it.
